1) India has leapfrogged directly into a stock market economy like the USA. While equities continue to grow in price and volume income growth has not kept par. China on the other hand until recently seen modest equity price but median income has grown aggressively.

comparison

2) There is limited scope for manufacturing growth. Large english speaking population = more exposure to western social media = aspire to do blue collar knowledge work = higher manufacturing wage costs ( taken from molson hart video )

3) Inept government which has stifling bureaucracy at all levels an example is the labor laws outlined by this paper

4) Terrible humid and hot weather discouraging high cognition innovation except in AC and limiting manufacturing efficiency. In addition India has the some of the worst air pollution in the world including it’s capital New Delhi. There have been no serious efforts to address this air pollution.

5) India’s smartest talent continues to emigrate to USA , Europe etc

6) India’s startup ecosystem is full of doordashes ( labor arbitrage ) no innovative product or hardware companies. Most valuable startups like byju’s are scams , zomato and swiggy further fattening a growingly obese & diabetic population

7) Inequality continues to increase, buoyed by stock market returns. While luxury car sales like mercedes-benz are growing other cars remain flat in previous quarters

“The top 10% of the population has seen an increase in their share of national income, from 42.2% in 2011 to 48.0% in 2021. The top 1% has also increased their share, from 18.1% in 2011 to 21.7% in 2021. The bottom 50% has seen a decrease in their share, from 14.7% in 2011 to 13.0% in 2021. The middle 40% has experienced the largest decrease, from 43.1% in 2011 to 39.0% in 2021.”

8) Ubiquitous cheap data and smartphones while hailed as victory is actually acting as spiritual opium impeding progress in several areas when combined with addictive western social media , gaming and gambling. While there is an occasional case of exemplary young people achieving alot on platforms like replit using smartphone 90% population are wiling their time on facebook, instagram, tiktok equivalents and stupid games. The people are losing the attention war to devices in a bad way instead of upskilling or working in manufacturing as mentioned in 1). A related point with 7) mukesh ambani’s jio is apparently valued at 180$ bn highlighting inequality and creating growth in sub optimal areas like streaming media etc. All the time youth spend on binge viewing , sport , gaming is zero sum taken away from reading , upskilling or even working seriously.

9) India’s TFR ( Total Fertility Rate ) continues to reduce alarmingly having reached below replacement to 1.96. The fertility rate in metro’s is even lower and elite are also having less children. Impact on future growth is self-explanatory.

10) Another huge problem in India is the terrible acoustic environment in urban centers. Continuous honking , unchecked construction , crows and people playing videos etc from mobile devices and talking at unnessesarily high volumes.

11) Indians in general do not seem to perceive tail risks of death on the roads. Indians can be seen walking in the middle of the road , crossing aggresively , driving bikes and cycles aggressively without helmets ( with unprotected children in tow ). This I feel signals a low self worth in addition to the likely reasons of poor education on the dangers. This extends to poor civic sense from the median Indian. India is one of the dirtiest countries in the world , read about Bryan Caplan’s experiences here and some of his other points on the shortcomings of India.

12) India’s judicial system is overburdened this post explains better than I can here

13) Indian’s overwhelming think with a Malthusian lens citing overpopulation and looting by the British as a cause for poverity. Idea is very well articulated in this Marginal Revolution comment here

14) “An interesting, novel to me argument for Indo-pessimism: basically, if China locks down commodities from the global South and remains industry-heavy, India will need to make CNY somehow to access this market, and their revenue flow is too Anglo-dependent.” tweet . Over dependence on services for exports ( around 44% of GDP ) creates a huge void that can be created by the arrival of AGI.